The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $117K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $99K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Before December 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Before December 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before January 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Before January 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before November 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Before November 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

October 15, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

October 15, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

October 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 2.0%

October 31, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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