The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 7m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 53.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 75.0%

Before Jan 1, 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

47.5%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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