Market comparison

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

2 venues · 14 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $364K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 19s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 13, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $84K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Before 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Before 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 31, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 48.0% Before Dec 31, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before June, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Before June, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before March, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Before March, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 6, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Before Nov 6, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 13, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 34.0% Before Nov 13, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 2, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 2, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 9, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 9, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 16, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 16, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 23, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before Oct 23, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 30, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% Before Oct 30, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 25, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 25, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before September, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 59.0% Before September, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—

Before 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

Before 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Dec 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 48.0%

Before Dec 31, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before June, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0%

Before June, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before March, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

Before March, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 6, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

Before Nov 6, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 13, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 34.0%

Before Nov 13, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 2, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 2, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 9, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 9, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 16, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 16, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 23, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before Oct 23, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 30, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

Before Oct 30, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Sep 25, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Sep 25, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before September, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

59.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 59.0%

Before September, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets