Market comparison

Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

27 outcomes · $75K reported volume

Observed 40s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $19K reported volume

Observed 6m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
4.86% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 31.0% 4.86% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.89% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 18.0% 4.89% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.92% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 15.0% 4.92% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% 4.95% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% 5.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.05% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.3% Bid 3.3% · Ask 7.2% 5.05% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.4% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.7% 5.10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.2% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.3% 5.15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 1.3% · Ask 6.1% 5.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.29% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 94.5% · Ask 100.0% 5.29% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.32% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.3% Bid 2.6% · Ask 4.0% 5.32% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.9% 5.35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.38% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.38% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.41% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9% 5.41% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.9% 5.45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9% 5.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.4% Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.9% 5.55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.5% 5.60% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.67% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.67% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.0% 5.70% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.73% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.9% 5.73% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.76% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.76% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% 5.80% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.85% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.4% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.8% 5.85% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.8% 5.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.1% 5.95% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
6.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.7% Bid 1.4% · Ask 4.0% 6.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
6% or higher Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 6% or higher Open Kalshi ↗	—

4.86%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 31.0%

4.86%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.89%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 18.0%

4.89%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.92%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 15.0%

4.92%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

4.95%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

5.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.05%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 3.3% · Ask 7.2%

5.05%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.7%

5.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.3%

5.15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 6.1%

5.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.29%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 94.5% · Ask 100.0%

5.29% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.32%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.3%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 4.0%

5.32%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.9%

5.35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.38%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.38%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.41%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9%

5.41%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.9%

5.45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.9%

5.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.9%

5.55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.5%

5.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.67%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.67% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.0%

5.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.73%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.9%

5.73%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.76%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.76%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

5.80%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.85%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.8%

5.85%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.8%

5.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.1%

5.95%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

6.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.7%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 4.0%

6.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

6% or higher

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

6% or higher

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets