Market comparison

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

2 venues · 14 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $3.8M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 29, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $680K reported volume

Observed 27s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
April 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 40.0% April 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
April Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% April Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
December 2026 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.0% December 2026 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
In 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.5% · Ask 3.0% In 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
January 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.6% Bid 5.2% · Ask 8.0% January 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
July 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	51.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 79.0% July 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 50.0% June 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% January Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% July Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
March 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% March 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
March Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% March Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
October 2026 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% October 2026 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 2026 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 2026 Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

April 2027 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 40.0%

April 2027 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

April Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

April Meeting · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

December 2026 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.0%

December 2026 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

In 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 3.0%

In 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

January 2027 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.6%

Bid 5.2% · Ask 8.0%

January 2027 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

July 2027 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 79.0%

July 2027 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June 2027 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 50.0%

June 2027 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

January Meeting · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

June Meeting · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

July Meeting · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

March 2027 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

March 2027 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

March Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

March Meeting · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

October 2026 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

October 2026 Meeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 2026 Meeting

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 2026 Meeting · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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