Market comparison

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $74.5M reported volume

Observed 16s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $36.9M reported volume

Observed 16s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
April 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% April 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Before August Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before August · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.2% Bid 4.1% · Ask 4.2% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 20, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% Before Jan 20, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before July 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before July 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before October Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before October · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before September Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before September · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
December 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 4.2% · Ask 4.3% December 31 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
March 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% March 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
May 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% May 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
October 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5% October 31 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

April 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

April 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Before August

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before August · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.2%

Bid 4.1% · Ask 4.2%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 20, 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Before July 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before July 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before October

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before October · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before September

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before September · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

December 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 4.2% · Ask 4.3%

December 31

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

June 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

March 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

March 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

May 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

May 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

October 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5%

October 31

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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