Market comparison
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $509K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $21K reported volume
Observed 8m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 8, 2027
Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.
No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Before 2027 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Yes Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Before 2027
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Yes
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.