Market comparison

WNBA: 2026 Champion

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $9.0M reported volume

Observed 59s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 30, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $1.6M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for WNBA: 2026 Champion
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Atlanta Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	80.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 80.0% Atlanta Open Kalshi ↗	78.5% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% Atlanta Dream Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Golden State Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	20.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0% Golden State Open Kalshi ↗	21.9% Bid 21.3% · Ask 22.5% Golden State Valkyries Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
Chicago Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Chicago · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Chicago Sky Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Chicago Sky · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Connecticut Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Connecticut · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Connecticut Sun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Connecticut Sun · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dallas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Dallas · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dallas Wings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.2% Dallas Wings · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Indiana Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Indiana · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Indiana Fever Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Indiana Fever · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Las Vegas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Las Vegas · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Las Vegas Aces Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Las Vegas Aces · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Los Angeles Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Los Angeles · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Los Angeles Sparks Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Los Angeles Sparks · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Minnesota Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Minnesota · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Minnesota Lynx Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Minnesota Lynx · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
New York Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% New York · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
New York Liberty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% New York Liberty · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Phoenix Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Phoenix · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Phoenix Mercury Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Phoenix Mercury · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Portland Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Portland · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Portland Fire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Portland Fire · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Seattle Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Seattle · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Seattle Storm Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Seattle Storm · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Toronto Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Toronto · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Toronto Tempo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Toronto Tempo · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Washington Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Washington · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Washington Mystics Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.2% Washington Mystics · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

Atlanta

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 80.0%

Atlanta

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

78.5%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

Atlanta Dream

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Golden State

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0%

Golden State

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

21.9%

Bid 21.3% · Ask 22.5%

Golden State Valkyries

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Chicago

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Chicago · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Chicago Sky

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Chicago Sky · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Connecticut

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Connecticut · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Connecticut Sun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Connecticut Sun · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Dallas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Dallas · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dallas Wings

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Dallas Wings · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Indiana

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Indiana · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Indiana Fever

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Indiana Fever · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Las Vegas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Las Vegas · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Las Vegas Aces

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Las Vegas Aces · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Los Angeles

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Los Angeles · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Los Angeles Sparks

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Los Angeles Sparks · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Minnesota

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Minnesota · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Minnesota Lynx

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Minnesota Lynx · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

New York

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

New York · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

New York Liberty

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

New York Liberty · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Phoenix

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Phoenix · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Phoenix Mercury

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Phoenix Mercury · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Portland

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Portland · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Portland Fire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Portland Fire · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Seattle

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Seattle · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Seattle Storm

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Seattle Storm · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Toronto

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Toronto · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Toronto Tempo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Toronto Tempo · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Washington

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Washington · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Washington Mystics

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Washington Mystics · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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