Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
4th or lower
$36K volume
98.3%
—
3rd hottest
$101K volume
1.3%
—
2nd hottest
$60K volume
0.5%
—
1st hottest
$115K volume
0.2%
—
Live marketEnds Apr 10, 2026 (3d)Updated 1m ago
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Live prediction market odds for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?". 4th or lower is leading at 98.3%. The next most likely outcome is 3rd hottest at 1.3%. Total volume is $312K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 10, 2026.
Leading Outcome
4th or lower
98.3%
Total Vol
$312K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?". 4th or lower is leading at 98.3%. The next most likely outcome is 3rd hottest at 1.3%. Total volume is $312K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 10, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Apr 10, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 6 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
7
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
131h
Sources
7
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
131h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Beaver Valley high school baseball notebook, March 30-April 4 - Beaver County Times
Beaver County Times·13h ago·neutral
Historic heat wave: southern Colorado records hottest March on record
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
Weather blog: Northwest Arkansas had its warmest March on record
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
March Was The Record Warmest In Dozens Of US Cities From Texas To California
Bing News·5d ago·neutral
San Diego's hottest March on record a likely glimpse into the future, climatologists say - NBC 7 San Diego
NBC 7 San Diego·5d ago·neutral
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