The Prediction Markets

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Closed
Apr 10, 2026
Traded
$347K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 197 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4th or lower
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4746 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
4th or lower
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
2nd hottest
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4746 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
2nd hottest
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
3rd hottest
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4746 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
3rd hottest
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4th or lower
  • 2nd hottest
  • 3rd hottest

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?". 4th or lower last traded at 99.9%. Next is 2nd hottest at 0.1%. $347K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 10, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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