The Prediction Markets

2028 Presidential matchup

Ends in about 746 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$322K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance 14%

Next is Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance at 12%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
AOC v. JD Vance
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
AOC v. JD Vance
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris v. JD Vance
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris v. JD Vance
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
AOC v. JD Vance
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
AOC v. Marco Rubio
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico v. Marco Rubio
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico v. Marco Rubio
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear v. JD Vance
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear v. JD Vance
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico v. JD Vance
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico v. JD Vance
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party, Democratic Party

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
  • Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
  • AOC v. JD Vance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Presidential matchup". Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance leads at 14%. Next is Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance at 12%. $322K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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