The Prediction Markets

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Starts in 3 daysKickoff
Traded
$2.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
53 min ago
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What the markets expect

Barcelona 58.1%

Next is Real Madrid at 26.5%. The venues differ most on Real Madrid (Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 28%), a 2.5-point gap.

Barcelona 58.1%Real Madrid 26.5%Draw 15.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 6 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 54 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Barcelona
58.1%
Polymarket 59.5%live, 54 min agoKalshi 60%(57.7% fair)live, 53 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
FC Barcelona
Price
59.5%
As of
Live feed, 54 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Barcelona
Price
60%
Fair, margin removed
57.7%
As of
Live feed, 53 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$601K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 54 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 60¢.

Real Madrid
26.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 54 min agoKalshi 28%(26.9% fair)polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Real Madrid CF
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Real Madrid
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
26.9%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 54 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 26¢.

Draw
15.4%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 54 min agoKalshi 16%(15.4% fair)polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF)
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$171K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 54 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Same bet: both settle on the 90-minute result

Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: laliga.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Barcelona
  • Real Madrid
  • Draw

Live prices for Barcelona

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Barcelona vs Real Madrid". Barcelona leads at 58.1%. Next is Real Madrid at 26.5%. $2.5M has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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