Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
No other person
$2K volume
56.0%
—
Robert O'Brien
$674 volume
16.0%
—
Ric Grenell
$989 volume
15.0%
—
Bill Hagerty
$507 volume
9.0%
—
Mike Waltz
$699 volume
3.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 20, 2029 (2y 290d)Updated 1m ago
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?". No other person is leading at 56.0%. The next most likely outcome is Robert O'Brien at 16.0%. Total volume is $5K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 20, 2029.
Leading Outcome
No other person
56.0%
Total Vol
$5K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?". No other person is leading at 56.0%. The next most likely outcome is Robert O'Brien at 16.0%. Total volume is $5K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 20, 2029.
Expected resolution date: Jan 20, 2029.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
508h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
508h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Who will Trump fire next? Cabinet shakeup could expand, source tells Fox News - FOX 5 Atlanta
FOX 5 Atlanta·1d ago·neutral
Who will Trump fire next? Cabinet shakeup could expand, source tells Fox News
Bing News·1d ago·neutral
NATO’s Rutte to meet with Trump at White House amid attacks on alliance - Politico
Politico·2d ago·neutral
“He’s Very Angry”: Trump Gets Ready to Purge Even More Advisers
Bing News·2d ago·neutral
Trump’s changing messages on Iran war: What does it say about US strategy? - Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera·14d ago·neutral
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