Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Plaid Cymru
$7K volume
85.0%
—
Reform
$2K volume
13.0%
—
Labour
$4K volume
7.0%
—
Green
$3K volume
7.0%
—
Conservative
$3K volume
1.0%
—
Liberal Democrats
$4K volume
1.0%
—
Live marketEnds May 7, 2027 (1y 31d)Updated 7m ago
Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election?
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election?". Plaid Cymru is leading at 85.0%. The next most likely outcome is Reform at 13.0%. Total volume is $23K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by May 7, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Plaid Cymru
85.0%
Total Vol
$23K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election?". Plaid Cymru is leading at 85.0%. The next most likely outcome is Reform at 13.0%. Total volume is $23K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by May 7, 2027.
Expected resolution date: May 7, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
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