Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before 2027
$7K volume
18.0%
—
Before July 2026
$648 volume
17.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (9mo)Updated 14m ago
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?
Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?". Before 2027 is leading at 18.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before July 2026 at 17.0%. Total volume is $11K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Before 2027
18.0%
Total Vol
$11K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?". Before 2027 is leading at 18.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before July 2026 at 17.0%. Total volume is $11K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
10
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
1287h
Sources
10
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
1287h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Trump’s USMCA exit threat seen pushing Canada into China’s arms - South China Morning Post
South China Morning Post·39d ago·neutral
Trump Mulls a North American Trade Pact Without Canada - The New York Times
The New York Times·45d ago·neutral
Dispatch from Mexico City: Trump’s latest consideration of USMCA withdrawal meets a measured reaction - atlanticcouncil.org
atlanticcouncil.org·52d ago·neutral
Is Trump planning to exit the trade pact with Mexico, Canada he signed in his first term? - Firstpost
Firstpost·52d ago·neutral
Trump privately weighs quitting USMCA trade pact he negotiated - The Detroit News
The Detroit News·53d ago·neutral
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