Market comparison

Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?

2 venues · 39 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

50 outcomes · $1.6M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Before 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Before 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0% Before 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0% Before 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before July 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.6% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Before July 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Brooke Rollins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.8% Bid 0.8% · Ask 14.7% Brooke Rollins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Chris Wright Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% Chris Wright Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Dan Bongino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Dan Bongino · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Dan Scavino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 53.0% Dan Scavino Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
David Sacks Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 3.8% · Ask 10.2% David Sacks Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Doug Burgum Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 1.3% · Ask 1.7% Doug Burgum Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Doug Collins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.6% Doug Collins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Howard Lutnick Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Howard Lutnick Open Polymarket ↗ 0.7% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.9% Howard Lutnick Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
J.D. Vance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.1% J.D. Vance Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Jamieson Greer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0% Jamieson Greer Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
John Ratcliffe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% John Ratcliffe Open Polymarket ↗ 0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% John Ratcliffe Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Karoline Leavitt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Karoline Leavitt · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kash Patel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 19.0% Kash Patel Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kelly Loeffler Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.2% Kelly Loeffler Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kristi Noem Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.2% Bid 22.4% · Ask 34.0% Kristi Noem Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Lee Zeldin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 17.0% Lee Zeldin Open Polymarket ↗ 1.6% Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.1% Lee Zeldin Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Linda McMahon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.8% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9% Linda McMahon Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Lori Chavez-DeRemer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Lori Chavez-DeRemer · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Marco Rubio Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Marco Rubio Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Marco Rubio Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Markwayne Mullin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 29.0% Markwayne Mullin Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Mike Waltz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 2.6% · Ask 7.3% Mike Waltz Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
None before 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.7% Bid 37.1% · Ask 38.3% None before 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pam Bondi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Pam Bondi · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pete Hegseth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 27.0% Pete Hegseth Open Polymarket ↗ 9.3% Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.2% Pete Hegseth Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Open Polymarket ↗ 4.8% Bid 2.9% · Ask 6.7% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Russell T. Vought Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 46.0% Russell Vought Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Russell T. Vought Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.4% Russell T. Vought Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Scott Bessent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Scott Bessent Open Polymarket ↗ 0.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.8% Scott Bessent Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Scott Turner Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Scott Turner Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Sean Duffy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Sean Duffy Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Stephen Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% Stephen Miller Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Susie Wiles Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 37.0% Susie Wiles Open Polymarket ↗ 24.4% Bid 23.7% · Ask 25.1% Susie Wiles Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Tom Homan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 33.0% Tom Homan Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Tulsi Gabbard Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Tulsi Gabbard · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Before 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

Before 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0%

Before 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0%

Before 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Before July 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.6%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Before July 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Brooke Rollins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 14.7%

Brooke Rollins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Chris Wright

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4%

Chris Wright

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Dan Bongino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Dan Bongino · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Dan Scavino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 53.0%

Dan Scavino

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

David Sacks

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.8% · Ask 10.2%

David Sacks

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Doug Burgum

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 1.7%

Doug Burgum

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Doug Collins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.6%

Doug Collins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Howard Lutnick

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Howard Lutnick

Open Polymarket ↗

0.7%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.9%

Howard Lutnick

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

J.D. Vance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.1%

J.D. Vance

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Jamieson Greer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0%

Jamieson Greer

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

John Ratcliffe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

John Ratcliffe

Open Polymarket ↗

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

John Ratcliffe

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Karoline Leavitt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Karoline Leavitt · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kash Patel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 19.0%

Kash Patel

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kelly Loeffler

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.2%

Kelly Loeffler

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kristi Noem

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.2%

Bid 22.4% · Ask 34.0%

Kristi Noem

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lee Zeldin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 17.0%

Lee Zeldin

Open Polymarket ↗

1.6%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.1%

Lee Zeldin

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Linda McMahon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9%

Linda McMahon

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Marco Rubio

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

Marco Rubio

Open Polymarket ↗

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Marco Rubio

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Markwayne Mullin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 29.0%

Markwayne Mullin

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Mike Waltz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 7.3%

Mike Waltz

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

None before 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

37.7%

Bid 37.1% · Ask 38.3%

None before 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pam Bondi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Pam Bondi · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pete Hegseth

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 27.0%

Pete Hegseth

Open Polymarket ↗

9.3%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.2%

Pete Hegseth

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

4.8%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 6.7%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Russell T. Vought

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 46.0%

Russell Vought

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Russell T. Vought

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.4%

Russell T. Vought

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Scott Bessent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Scott Bessent

Open Polymarket ↗

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.8%

Scott Bessent

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Scott Turner

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

Scott Turner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Sean Duffy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

Sean Duffy

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Stephen Miller

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

Stephen Miller

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Susie Wiles

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 37.0%

Susie Wiles

Open Polymarket ↗

24.4%

Bid 23.7% · Ask 25.1%

Susie Wiles

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tom Homan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 33.0%

Tom Homan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tulsi Gabbard

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Tulsi Gabbard · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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