Florida Senate
Safe R
Kalshi
- Ashley Moody92%
- Angie Nixon9%
Polymarket
- Ashley Moody91%
- Angie Nixon9%
Venue gap 0.8 ptsCompare odds →
2026 midterms · Florida
Florida 2026 Election Odds
Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds for Florida's 2026 races — Senate and governor and 28 House districts. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Florida Governor
Likely RKalshi
- Byron Donalds80%
- David Jolly20%
Polymarket
- Byron Donalds81%
- David Jolly20%
Venue gap 0.5 ptsCompare odds →
Florida House races
Every Florida district with a market on either venue.
| District | Rating | Kalshi favourite | Polymarket favourite | Gap | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-01 | Safe R | Jimmy Patronis97% | Jimmy Patronis96% | 1.3 pts | Odds → |
| FL-02 | Safe R | Austin Rogers93% | Austin Rogers93% | 0.4 pts | Odds → |
| FL-03 | Safe R | Kat Cammack94% | Kat Cammack95% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| FL-04 | Likely R | Aaron Bean82% | Aaron Bean82% | 0.0 pts | Odds → |
| FL-05 | Safe R | John Rutherford94% | John Rutherford93% | 0.7 pts | Odds → |
| FL-06 | Safe R | Randy Fine94% | Randy Fine93% | 0.8 pts | Odds → |
| FL-07 | Lean R | Ryan Elijah73% | Ryan Elijah70% | 3.0 pts | Odds → |
| FL-08 | Safe R | Mike Haridopolos96% | Mike Haridopolos95% | 0.3 pts | Odds → |
| FL-09 | Lean R | Dan Green71% | Dan Green69% | 2.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-10 | Safe D | Maxwell Frost99% | Maxwell Frost98% | 1.2 pts | Odds → |
| FL-11 | Likely R | Joe Strada84% | Joe Strada86% | 1.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-12 | Likely R | Gus Bilirakis85% | Gus Bilirakis85% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-13 | Likely R | Anna Paulina Luna76% | Anna Paulina Luna75% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| FL-14 | Lean D | Kathy Castor70% | Kathy Castor69% | 1.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-15 | Safe R | Laurel Lee93% | Laurel Lee94% | 0.8 pts | Odds → |
| FL-16 | Likely R | Sydney Gruters82% | Sydney Gruters81% | 1.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-17 | Safe R | Greg Steube96% | Greg Steube96% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| FL-18 | Safe R | Scott Franklin95% | Scott Franklin95% | 0.4 pts | Odds → |
| FL-19 | Safe R | Jim Schwartzel96% | Jim Schwartzel95% | 1.4 pts | Odds → |
| FL-20 | Safe D | Debbie Wasserman Schultz97% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz98% | 0.9 pts | Odds → |
| FL-21 | Likely R | Brian Mast86% | Brian Mast87% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-22 | Lean D | Pia Dandiya62% | Pia Dandiya63% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-23 | Safe D | Lois Frankel95% | Lois Frankel96% | 0.6 pts | Odds → |
| FL-24 | Safe D | Oliver Gilbert97% | Oliver Gilbert96% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| FL-25 | Likely D | Jared Moskowitz88% | Jared Moskowitz88% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-26 | Likely R | Mario Díaz-Balart82% | Mario Díaz-Balart82% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| FL-27 | Lean R | Maria Elvira Salazar66% | María Elvira Salazar66% | 0.0 pts | Odds → |
| FL-28 | Safe R | Carlos Giménez94% | Carlos Giménez95% | 0.6 pts | Odds → |
Florida midterms: common questions
- Who will win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
- Ashley Moody (Republican) is favoured to win the Florida Senate race, at 92% on Kalshi and 91% on Polymarket.
- Who will win the Florida governor race in 2026?
- Byron Donalds (Republican) is favoured to win the Florida governor race, at 80% on Kalshi and 81% on Polymarket.
- Which Florida House races are competitive in 2026?
- Prediction markets rate FL-07, FL-09, FL-14, FL-22, FL-27 as toss-up or lean races.