The Prediction Markets

# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$92K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

150M 96.2%

Next is 150-160M at 3.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

150M 96.2%150-160M 3.3%160-170M 0.1%170-180M 0.1%180-190M 0.1%2 others 0.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
150M
96.2%
Polymarket 96.7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
150M
Last price
96.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
150-160M
3.3%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
150-160M
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-170M
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-170M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
170-180M
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
170-180M
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
180-190M
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-190M
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
190-200M
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
190-200M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
200M+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 150M
  • 150-160M
  • 160-170M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)". 150M leads at 96.2%. Next is 150-160M at 3.3%. $92K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of views the YouTube video "Lose 150 Lbs Together, Win $250,000" by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the video "Lose 150 Lbs Together, Win $250,000" by MrBeast (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RE3_PGwDwhw).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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