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Trading ended on Jun 29, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
I Knew It, I Knew You40.3%52%40.3% fair53¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)I Knew It, I Knew You40.3%Kalshi 52%(40.3% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
I Knew It, I Knew You
40.3%
52%
40.3% fair
53¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
I Knew It, I Knew You
40.3%
Kalshi 52%(40.3% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I Knew It, I Knew You
- Last price
- 52%
- Fair, margin removed
- 40.3%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $3K
Choosin' Texas34.9%45%34.9% fair39¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Choosin' Texas34.9%Kalshi 45%(34.9% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Choosin' Texas
34.9%
45%
34.9% fair
39¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Choosin' Texas
34.9%
Kalshi 45%(34.9% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Choosin' Texas
- Last price
- 45%
- Fair, margin removed
- 34.9%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $1K
hate that i made you love me2.3%3%2.3% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)hate that i made you love me2.3%Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
hate that i made you love me
2.3%
3%
2.3% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
hate that i made you love me
2.3%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- hate that i made you love me
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $206
BE HER1.5%2%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)BE HER1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
BE HER
1.5%
2%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
BE HER
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BE HER
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
I Just Might1.5%2%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)I Just Might1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Just Might
1.5%
2%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Just Might
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I Just Might
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
less1.5%2%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)less1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
less
1.5%
2%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
less
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- less
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
my way1.5%2%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)my way1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
my way
1.5%
2%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
my way
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- my way
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
stupid song1.5%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)stupid song1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
stupid song
1.5%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
stupid song
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- stupid song
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
begged0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)begged0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
begged
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
begged
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- begged
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
Billie Jean0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Billie Jean0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Billie Jean
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Billie Jean
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Billie Jean
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $7K
Show 17 more outcomesHide 17 outcomes
Boston0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Boston0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Boston
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Boston
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boston
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $7K
drop dead0.8%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)drop dead0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
drop dead
0.8%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
drop dead
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- drop dead
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $19
expectations0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)expectations0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
expectations
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
expectations
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- expectations
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
Folded0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Folded0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Folded
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Folded
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Folded
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
HOMEWRECKER0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)HOMEWRECKER0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
HOMEWRECKER
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
HOMEWRECKER
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- HOMEWRECKER
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
honeybee0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)honeybee0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
honeybee
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
honeybee
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- honeybee
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
Janice STFU0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Janice STFU0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Janice STFU
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Janice STFU
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Janice STFU
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $812
maggots for brains0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)maggots for brains0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
maggots for brains
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
maggots for brains
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- maggots for brains
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
Man I Need0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Man I Need0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Man I Need
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Man I Need
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Man I Need
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
Midnight Sun0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Midnight Sun0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Midnight Sun
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Midnight Sun
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Midnight Sun
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Risk It All0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Risk It All0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Risk It All
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Risk It All
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Risk It All
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Shabang0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Shabang0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Shabang
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Shabang
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shabang
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
So Easy (To Fall In Love)0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)So Easy (To Fall In Love)0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- So Easy (To Fall In Love)
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
STATESIDE0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)STATESIDE0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
STATESIDE
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
STATESIDE
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- STATESIDE
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
the cure0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)the cure0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
the cure
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
the cure
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- the cure
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $100
u + me = <30.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)u + me = <30.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
u + me = <3
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
u + me = <3
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- u + me = <3
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
what’s wrong with me0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3020 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)what’s wrong with me0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
what’s wrong with me
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3020 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
what’s wrong with me
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- what’s wrong with me
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $112
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- I Knew It, I Knew You
- Choosin' Texas
- hate that i made you love me
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jul 4, 2026?". I Knew It, I Knew You last traded at 40.3%. Next is Choosin' Texas at 34.9%. $72K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 29, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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