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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Dolly Parton 56%
Next is Hayden Panettiere at 23.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Dolly Parton56%55%56% fair54¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 min ago56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Dolly Parton56%Polymarket 55%(56% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Dolly Parton
56%
55%
56% fair
54¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Dolly Parton
56%
Polymarket 55%(56% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dolly Parton
- Last price
- 55%
- Fair, margin removed
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $21K
Hayden Panettiere23.4%23%17¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Hayden Panettiere23.4%Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Hayden Panettiere
23.4%
23%
17¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Hayden Panettiere
23.4%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hayden Panettiere
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $19K
Oliver Tree8.1%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Oliver Tree8.1%Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Oliver Tree
8.1%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Oliver Tree
8.1%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oliver Tree
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $18K
Renée Good4.4%4.3%3.7¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Renée Good4.4%Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Renée Good
4.4%
4.3%
3.7¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Renée Good
4.4%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Renée Good
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $4K
Chuck Norris1.9%1.9%0.4¢ bid, 3.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)Chuck Norris1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Chuck Norris
1.9%
1.9%
0.4¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Chuck Norris
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chuck Norris
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $25K
Alex Pretti1.4%1.4%1.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Alex Pretti1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Alex Pretti
1.4%
1.4%
1.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Alex Pretti
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alex Pretti
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ali Khamenei0.8%0.8%0.4¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Ali Khamenei0.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Ali Khamenei
0.8%
0.8%
0.4¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Ali Khamenei
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ali Khamenei
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $35K
Lindsey Graham0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Lindsey Graham0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Lindsey Graham
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Lindsey Graham
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lindsey Graham
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Bob Weir0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Bob Weir0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Bob Weir
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Bob Weir
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bob Weir
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $578
Catherine O'Hara0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Catherine O'Hara0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Catherine O'Hara
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Catherine O'Hara
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Catherine O'Hara
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $673
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Clive Davis0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Clive Davis0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Clive Davis
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Clive Davis
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Clive Davis
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $748
Eric Dane0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Eric Dane0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Eric Dane
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Eric Dane
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eric Dane
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $758
James Van Der Beek0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)James Van Der Beek0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
James Van Der Beek
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
James Van Der Beek
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Van Der Beek
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $668
Jesse Jackson0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Jesse Jackson0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Jesse Jackson
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Jesse Jackson
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jesse Jackson
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $713
Kyle Busch0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Kyle Busch0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kyle Busch
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kyle Busch
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kyle Busch
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $962
Nicholas Brendon0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Nicholas Brendon0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Nicholas Brendon
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Nicholas Brendon
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nicholas Brendon
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $768
Robert Duvall0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Robert Duvall0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Robert Duvall
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Robert Duvall
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Robert Duvall
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $708
Ted Turner0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Ted Turner0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ted Turner
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ted Turner
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ted Turner
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $702
Valentino Garavani0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Valentino Garavani0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Valentino Garavani
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Valentino Garavani
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Valentino Garavani
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $626
Sam Neill0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Sam Neill0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Sam Neill
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Sam Neill
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sam Neill
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $1K
Alan Greenspan0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Alan Greenspan0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Alan Greenspan
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Alan Greenspan
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alan Greenspan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $658
Bonnie Tyler0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Bonnie Tyler0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Bonnie Tyler
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Bonnie Tyler
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bonnie Tyler
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $601
David Hockney0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)David Hockney0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
David Hockney
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
David Hockney
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- David Hockney
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $693
Scott Adams0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Scott Adams0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Scott Adams
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Scott Adams
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Scott Adams
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $586
Victor Willis0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Victor Willis0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Victor Willis
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Victor Willis
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Victor Willis
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $669
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Dolly Parton
- Hayden Panettiere
- Oliver Tree
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "#1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?". Dolly Parton leads at 56%. Next is Hayden Panettiere at 23.4%. $139K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "Passings" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → Passings. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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