The Prediction Markets

#1 Searched Person on Google in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$2.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lindsay Clancy 20%

Next is Erling Haaland at 15.2%. The venues differ most on Elon Musk (Polymarket 0.6%, Kalshi 3%), a 2.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 62 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lindsay Clancy
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lindsay Clancy
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erling Haaland
15.2%
Polymarket 15.5%live, just nowKalshi 15%live, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Price
15.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erling Haaland
Price
15%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Bad Bunny
10.9%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 11%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Donald Trump
6.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Alysa Liu
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alysa Liu
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Savannah Guthrie
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Savannah Guthrie
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jude Bellingham
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Swift
2.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 60s agoKalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.6¢.

Elon MuskArb
2.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoKalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

Show 42 more outcomes
Benjamin Netanyahu
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Mahomes
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Travis Kelce
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Kelce
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Neymar
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neymar
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$518
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sabrina Carpenter
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$727
Trade this on Polymarket
Cristiano Ronaldo
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scarlett Johansson
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Timothee ChalametArb
1.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoKalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$885
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Christian Pulisic
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christian Pulisic
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Damon
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
1.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

LeBron James
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$788
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Downey Jr.
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Downey Jr.
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kylian Mbappé
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ja Morant
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ja Morant
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Kanye West
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kanye West
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamine Yamal
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Biden
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luigi Mangione
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luigi Mangione
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Altman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shohei Ohtani
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shohei Ohtani
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sydney Sweeney
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sydney Sweeney
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Putin
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ariana Grande
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jacob Elordi
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacob Elordi
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luka Dončić
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luka Dončić
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
Zendaya
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Billie Eilish
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Chappell Roan
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Allen
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stefon Diggs
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stefon Diggs
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Angel Reese
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angel Reese
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthony Edwards
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Edwards
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caitlin Clark
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caitlin Clark
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jake Paul
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jake Paul
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Burrow
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pedro Pascal
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
JD Vance
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scottie Scheffler
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scottie Scheffler
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Elon Musk on Polymarket at 0.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 2¢ (120 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on Google's Year in Search Global list for the year.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Google Trends
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on Google's Year in Search Global list for the year.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lindsay Clancy
  • Erling Haaland
  • Bad Bunny

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lindsay Clancy for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#1 Searched Person on Google in 2026?". Lindsay Clancy leads at 20%. Next is Erling Haaland at 15.2%. $2.0M has traded across 52 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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