The Prediction Markets

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 20bps 96%

Next is Above 10bps at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 20bps
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above -20bps
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10bps
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above -10bps
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30bps
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above -30bps
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0bps
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0bps
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10bps
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10bps
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20bps
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20bps
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30bps
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30bps
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40bps
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40bps
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50bps
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50bps
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$744
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60bps
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60bps
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70bps
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70bps
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 20bps
  • Above 10bps
  • Above 30bps

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026". Above 20bps leads at 96%. Next is Above 10bps at 95%. $8K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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