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ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
4.75% or above 82%
Next is 5% or above at 64%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.75% or above82%Not listed82%82¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 32s ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)4.75% or above82%Kalshi 82%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.75% or above
82%
Not listed
82%
82¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.75% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $12K
5% or above64%Not listed64%61¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 32s ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)5% or above64%Kalshi 64%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
5% or above
64%
Not listed
64%
61¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $11K
5.1% or above45%Not listed45%37¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 32s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)5.1% or above45%Kalshi 45%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.1% or above
45%
Not listed
45%
37¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.1% or above
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $10K
4.90%44%44%29¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)4.90%44%Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.90%
44%
44%
29¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.90%
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.90%
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.15% or above43%Not listed43%37¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 32s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.15% or above43%Kalshi 43%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.15% or above
43%
Not listed
43%
37¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $12K
5.0%Polymarket: “5.00%”39.5%39.5%25¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)5.0%39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
5.0%
Polymarket: “5.00%”
39.5%
39.5%
25¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
5.0%
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.00%
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.7%Polymarket: “5.70%”37%37%36¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)5.7%37%Polymarket 37%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
5.7%
Polymarket: “5.70%”
37%
37%
36¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
5.7%
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.70%
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $47K
5.25% or above35%Not listed35%31¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 32s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)5.25% or above35%Kalshi 35%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
5.25% or above
35%
Not listed
35%
31¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.4%32%32%31¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed33¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $303 (3.03x)5.4%32%Polymarket 32%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
5.4%
32%
32%
31¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
33¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
5.4%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.4%
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $77K
5.1%Polymarket: “5.10%”31%31%18¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)5.1%31%Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.1%
Polymarket: “5.10%”
31%
31%
18¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.1%
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.10%
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
5.80%23.3%23.3%22.1¢ bid, 24.4¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed24.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $410 (4.10x)5.80%23.3%Polymarket 23.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 24.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $410 (4.10x)
5.80%
23.3%
23.3%
22.1¢ bid, 24.4¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
24.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $410 (4.10x)
5.80%
23.3%
Polymarket 23.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 24.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $410 (4.10x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.80%
- Last price
- 23.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 22.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $410 (4.10x)
- Volume
- $47K
5.5% or above20%Not listed20%18¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 32s ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)5.5% or above20%Kalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
5.5% or above
20%
Not listed
20%
18¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
5.5% or above
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.2%Polymarket: “5.20%”18%18%15¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.2%18%Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.2%
Polymarket: “5.20%”
18%
18%
15¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.2%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.20%
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.90%17%17%16¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)5.90%17%Polymarket 17%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
5.90%
17%
17%
16¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
5.90%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.90%
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $33K
5.5%14.1%14.1%14¢ bid, 14.2¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed14.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $704 (7.04x)5.5%14.1%Polymarket 14.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
5.5%
14.1%
14.1%
14¢ bid, 14.2¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
14.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $704 (7.04x)
5.5%
14.1%
Polymarket 14.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.5%
- Last price
- 14.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $704 (7.04x)
- Volume
- $221K
5.7%11.9%11.9%11.7¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.7%11.9%Polymarket 11.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.7%
11.9%
11.9%
11.7¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.7%
11.9%
Polymarket 11.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.7%
- Last price
- 11.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $111K
5.3%Polymarket: “5.30%”10%10%8¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.3%10%Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.3%
Polymarket: “5.30%”
10%
10%
8¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.3%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.30%
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.75% or above10%Not listed10%5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 32s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.75% or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.75% or above
10%
Not listed
10%
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.75% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $693
6.0%6.3%6.3%6¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed6.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)6.0%6.3%Polymarket 6.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
6.0%
6.3%
6.3%
6¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
6.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
6.0%
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.0%
- Last price
- 6.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $101K
6.0%Polymarket: “6.00%”5.8%5.8%1.7¢ bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed9.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)6.0%5.8%Polymarket 5.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
6.0%
Polymarket: “6.00%”
5.8%
5.8%
1.7¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
9.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
6.0%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.00%
- Last price
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
- Volume
- $52K
5.5%Polymarket: “5.50%”4.4%4.4%3.1¢ bid, 5.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)5.5%4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
5.5%
Polymarket: “5.50%”
4.4%
4.4%
3.1¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
5.5%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.50%
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,754 (17.5x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.65%3.7%3.7%2.7¢ bid, 4.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)5.65%3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
5.65%
3.7%
3.7%
2.7¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
5.65%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.65%
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.4%Polymarket: “5.40%”2.1%2.1%1.9¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)5.4%2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
5.4%
Polymarket: “5.40%”
2.1%
2.1%
1.9¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
5.4%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.40%
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
6% or above1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 32s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)6% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov, home.treasury.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.75% or above
- 5% or above
- 5.1% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list 4.75% or above for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?". 4.75% or above leads at 82%. Next is 5% or above at 64%. $1.4M has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rate94%$14.3M traded
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cuts94.3%$10.8M traded
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?115.01 or above39.8%$9.3M traded
- Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA58.5%$8.8M traded
- S&P close price end of 2026?7,800 to 7,999.9924%$8.0M traded