Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
2.25% or above 98%
Next is 2.75% or above at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
3 of 25 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
2.25% or above98%98%80¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 3 h ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)2.25% or above98%Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
2.25% or above
98%
98%
80¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
2.25% or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.25% or above
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $7K
2.75% or above96%96%81¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 3 h ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)2.75% or above96%Kalshi 96%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
2.75% or above
96%
96%
81¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
2.75% or above
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.75% or above
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $4K
2% or above94%94%66¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 3 h ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)2% or above94%Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
2% or above
94%
94%
66¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
2% or above
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2% or above
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $5K
3.5% or above93%93%40¢ bid, — askpolled, 3 h agoNo ask3.5% or above93%Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h ago
3.5% or above
93%
93%
40¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
3.5% or above
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.5% or above
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- Volume
- $5K
3.25% or above93%93%51¢ bid, — askpolled, 3 h agoNo ask3.25% or above93%Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h ago
3.25% or above
93%
93%
51¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
3.25% or above
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.25% or above
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- Volume
- $4K
2.5% or above92%92%86¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 3 h ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)2.5% or above92%Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
2.5% or above
92%
92%
86¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
2.5% or above
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.5% or above
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $5K
4% or above80%80%78¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 3 h ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)4% or above80%Kalshi 80%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4% or above
80%
80%
78¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4% or above
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4% or above
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $8K
3% or above79%79%68¢ bid, 85¢ asklive, 3 h ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)3% or above79%Kalshi 79%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
3% or above
79%
79%
68¢ bid, 85¢ ask
live, 3 h ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
3% or above
79%
Kalshi 79%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3% or above
- Price
- 79%
- As of
- Live feed, 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $8K
3.75% or above77%77%77¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 3 h ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)3.75% or above77%Kalshi 77%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
3.75% or above
77%
77%
77¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
3.75% or above
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.75% or above
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $8K
7% or above77%77%7¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 3 h ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)7% or above77%Kalshi 77%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
7% or above
77%
77%
7¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
7% or above
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7% or above
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $5K
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
5.75% or above75%75%12¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 3 h ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)5.75% or above75%Kalshi 75%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
5.75% or above
75%
75%
12¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
5.75% or above
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $4K
4.25% or above71%71%27¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 3 h ago71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)4.25% or above71%Kalshi 71%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
4.25% or above
71%
71%
27¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
4.25% or above
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.25% or above
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $3K
4.75% or above69%69%36¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 3 h ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)4.75% or above69%Kalshi 69%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.75% or above
69%
69%
36¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.75% or above
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $3K
4.5% or above68%68%47¢ bid, 81¢ asklive, 3 h ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)4.5% or above68%Kalshi 68%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.5% or above
68%
68%
47¢ bid, 81¢ ask
live, 3 h ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.5% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.5% or above
- Price
- 68%
- As of
- Live feed, 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.5% or above62%62%25¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 3 h ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)5.5% or above62%Kalshi 62%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
5.5% or above
62%
62%
25¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
5.5% or above
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $4K
5% or above56%56%52¢ bid, 71¢ asklive, 3 h ago71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)5% or above56%Kalshi 56%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
5% or above
56%
56%
52¢ bid, 71¢ ask
live, 3 h ago
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
5% or above
56%
Kalshi 56%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Price
- 56%
- As of
- Live feed, 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $8K
5.25% or above45%45%12¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 3 h ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)5.25% or above45%Kalshi 45%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
5.25% or above
45%
45%
12¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
5.25% or above
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $6K
6.75% or above34%34%18¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3 h ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)6.75% or above34%Kalshi 34%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
6.75% or above
34%
34%
18¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
6.75% or above
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.75% or above
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $5K
6% or above24%24%24¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 3 h ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)6% or above24%Kalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
6% or above
24%
24%
24¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
6% or above
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $3K
7.5% or above21%21%10¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 3 h ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)7.5% or above21%Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
7.5% or above
21%
21%
10¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
7.5% or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.5% or above
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $3K
7.25% or above21%21%18¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 3 h ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)7.25% or above21%Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
7.25% or above
21%
21%
18¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
7.25% or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.25% or above
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $3K
6.25% or above19%19%12¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 3 h ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)6.25% or above19%Kalshi 19%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
6.25% or above
19%
19%
12¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
6.25% or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.25% or above
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $4K
6.5% or above16%16%13¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 3 h ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)6.5% or above16%Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
6.5% or above
16%
16%
13¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
6.5% or above
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.5% or above
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
7.75% or above2%2%2¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 3 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)7.75% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
7.75% or above
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
7.75% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.75% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $2K
8% or above2%2%2¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 3 h ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)8% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
8% or above
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
8% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $5K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 2.25% or above
- 2.75% or above
- 2% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?". 2.25% or above leads at 98%. Next is 2.75% or above at 96%. $120K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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