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Best ask
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What the markets expect
4.96% or above 59%
Next is 4.98% or above at 49%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.96% or above59%59%51¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)4.96% or above59%Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.96% or above
59%
59%
51¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.96% or above
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.96% or above
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $226
4.98% or above49%49%42¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 1 min ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)4.98% or above49%Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.98% or above
49%
49%
42¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.98% or above
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.98% or above
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $126
5% or above48%48%40¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)5% or above48%Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5% or above
48%
48%
40¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5% or above
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $521
5.02% or above44%44%33¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 1 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)5.02% or above44%Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.02% or above
44%
44%
33¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.02% or above
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.02% or above
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $638
5.04% or above39%39%32¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 1 min ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)5.04% or above39%Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
5.04% or above
39%
39%
32¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
5.04% or above
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.04% or above
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $245
5.08% or above29%29%15¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)5.08% or above29%Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.08% or above
29%
29%
15¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.08% or above
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.08% or above
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $68
5.1% or above27%27%11¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 1 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)5.1% or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
5.1% or above
27%
27%
11¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
5.1% or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $53
5.06% or above26.5%26.5%19¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)5.06% or above26.5%Kalshi 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5.06% or above
26.5%
26.5%
19¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5.06% or above
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.06% or above
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
5.12% or above21%21%8¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 1 min ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.12% or above21%Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.12% or above
21%
21%
8¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.12% or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.12% or above
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $5
5.16% or above16%16%— bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)5.16% or above16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
5.16% or above
16%
16%
— bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
5.16% or above
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.16% or above
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 25 more outcomesHide 25 outcomes
5.18% or above15%15%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)5.18% or above15%Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
5.18% or above
15%
15%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
5.18% or above
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.18% or above
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.2% or above12%12%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.2% or above12%Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.2% or above
12%
12%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.2% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.2% or above
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $729
5.22% or above10%10%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)5.22% or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
5.22% or above
10%
10%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
5.22% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.22% or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $336
5.14% or above9%9%9¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 min ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)5.14% or above9%Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.14% or above
9%
9%
9¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.14% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.14% or above
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $250
5.24% or above9%9%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)5.24% or above9%Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5.24% or above
9%
9%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5.24% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.24% or above
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $704
5.26% or above7%7%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)5.26% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5.26% or above
7%
7%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5.26% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.26% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $414
5.34% or above4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)5.34% or above4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
5.34% or above
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
5.34% or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.34% or above
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.28% or above3%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)5.28% or above3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.28% or above
3%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.28% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.28% or above
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.32% or above3%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)5.32% or above3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.32% or above
3%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.32% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.32% or above
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.36% or above3%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)5.36% or above3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.36% or above
3%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.36% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.36% or above
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.3% or above2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)5.3% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.3% or above
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.3% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.3% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.4% or above1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.4% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.4% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.4% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.4% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $633
5.38% or above1%1%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)5.38% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.38% or above
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
5.38% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.38% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.42% or above1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.42% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.42% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.42% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.42% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $601
5.44% or above1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.44% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.44% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.44% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.44% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.46% or above1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.46% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.46% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.46% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.46% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $207
5.62% or above1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.62% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.62% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.62% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.62% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $100
5.5% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.5% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.5% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.5% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.6% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.6% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.6% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.6% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.6% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.48% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.48% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.48% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.48% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.48% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.52% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.52% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.52% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.52% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.52% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.54% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.54% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.54% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.54% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.54% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.56% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.56% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.56% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.56% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.56% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.58% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.58% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.58% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.58% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.58% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
5.64% or above0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.64% or above0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.64% or above
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.64% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.64% or above
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.96% or above
- 4.98% or above
- 5% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?". 4.96% or above leads at 59%. Next is 4.98% or above at 49%. $22K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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