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Trading ended on Oct 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
5.11% or above98%98%94¢ bid, — askpolled, 372 h agoNo ask5.11% or above98%Kalshi 98%polled, 372 h ago
5.11% or above
98%
98%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, 372 h ago
No ask
5.11% or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 372 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.11% or above
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $120
5.23% or above89%89%75¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 372 h ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)5.23% or above89%Kalshi 89%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
5.23% or above
89%
89%
75¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
5.23% or above
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.23% or above
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $348
5.25% or above89%89%71¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 372 h ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)5.25% or above89%Kalshi 89%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
5.25% or above
89%
89%
71¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
5.25% or above
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $232
5.21% or above88%88%81¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 372 h ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)5.21% or above88%Kalshi 88%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
5.21% or above
88%
88%
81¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
5.21% or above
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.21% or above
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $733
5.15% or above86%86%87¢ bid, — askpolled, 372 h agoNo ask5.15% or above86%Kalshi 86%polled, 372 h ago
5.15% or above
86%
86%
87¢ bid, — ask
polled, 372 h ago
No ask
5.15% or above
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 372 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- Volume
- $447
5.13% or above83%83%92¢ bid, — askpolled, 372 h agoNo ask5.13% or above83%Kalshi 83%polled, 372 h ago
5.13% or above
83%
83%
92¢ bid, — ask
polled, 372 h ago
No ask
5.13% or above
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 372 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.13% or above
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- Volume
- $220
5.19% or above78%78%87¢ bid, — askpolled, 372 h agoNo ask5.19% or above78%Kalshi 78%polled, 372 h ago
5.19% or above
78%
78%
87¢ bid, — ask
polled, 372 h ago
No ask
5.19% or above
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 372 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.19% or above
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- Volume
- $681
5.17% or above73%73%87¢ bid, — askpolled, 372 h agoNo ask5.17% or above73%Kalshi 73%polled, 372 h ago
5.17% or above
73%
73%
87¢ bid, — ask
polled, 372 h ago
No ask
5.17% or above
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 372 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.17% or above
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- Volume
- $186
5.27% or above70%70%55¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 372 h ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)5.27% or above70%Kalshi 70%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
5.27% or above
70%
70%
55¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
5.27% or above
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.27% or above
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.29% or above62%62%50¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 372 h ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)5.29% or above62%Kalshi 62%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
5.29% or above
62%
62%
50¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
5.29% or above
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.29% or above
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $865
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
5.31% or above57%57%41¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 372 h ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)5.31% or above57%Kalshi 57%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
5.31% or above
57%
57%
41¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
5.31% or above
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.31% or above
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $989
5.33% or above46%46%35¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 372 h ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)5.33% or above46%Kalshi 46%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.33% or above
46%
46%
35¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.33% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.33% or above
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.35% or above36%36%19¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 372 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)5.35% or above36%Kalshi 36%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.35% or above
36%
36%
19¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.35% or above
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.35% or above
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.37% or above29%29%11¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 372 h ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)5.37% or above29%Kalshi 29%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.37% or above
29%
29%
11¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.37% or above
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.37% or above
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $572
5.39% or above8%8%8¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 372 h ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)5.39% or above8%Kalshi 8%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
5.39% or above
8%
8%
8¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 372 h ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
5.39% or above
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 372 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.39% or above
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 15 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $482
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 5.11% or above
- 5.23% or above
- 5.25% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 9, 2026?". 5.11% or above last traded at 98%. Next is 5.23% or above at 89%. $10K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 9, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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