The Prediction Markets

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

John Thune 43.5%

Next is Chuck Schumer at 35.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

John Thune 43.5%Chuck Schumer 35.6%John Barrasso 7%Tom Cotton 3.5%Brian Schatz 2.6%3 others 7.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
John Thune
43.5%
Kalshi 50%(43.5% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Thune
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chuck Schumer
35.6%
Kalshi 41%(35.7% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chuck Schumer
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
35.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Barrasso
7%
Kalshi 8%(7% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Barrasso
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Cotton
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Schatz
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Schatz
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Murphy
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Van Hollen
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cory Booker
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Thune
  • Chuck Schumer
  • John Barrasso

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?". John Thune leads at 43.5%. Next is Chuck Schumer at 35.6%. $11K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets