The Prediction Markets

1win Essence III: Winner

Closes
Nov 20, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Team Spirit 36%

Next is Aurora Gaming at 17.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Team Spirit 36%Aurora Gaming 17.3%Team Liquid 16.9%PARIVISION 15.5%1w Team 10.2%3 others 4.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Team Spirit
36%
Polymarket 47.5%(36% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Team Spirit
Last price
47.5%
Fair, margin removed
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aurora Gaming
17.3%
Polymarket 22.8%(17.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $224 (2.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aurora Gaming
Last price
22.8%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$224 (2.24x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Polymarket
Team Liquid
16.9%
Polymarket 22.4%(16.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $225 (2.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Team Liquid
Last price
22.4%
Fair, margin removed
16.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$225 (2.25x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
PARIVISION
15.5%
Polymarket 20.5%(15.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
PARIVISION
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Polymarket
1w Team
10.2%
Polymarket 13.5%(10.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
1w Team
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
GamerLegion
2.5%
Polymarket 3.3%(2.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
GamerLegion
Last price
3.3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
BetBoom Team
0.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
BetBoom Team
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
LGD Gaming
0.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
LGD Gaming
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Team Spirit
  • Aurora Gaming
  • Team Liquid

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "1win Essence III: Winner". Team Spirit leads at 36%. Next is Aurora Gaming at 17.3%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of 1win Essence III, currently scheduled for November 12 to November 18, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, BASED Esports / 1win Essence; however, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/dota2/1win_Essence/3) may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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1win Essence III: Winner Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets