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Best ask
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What the markets expect
ARIRANG 54.4%
Next is Dandelion at 6.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
ARIRANG54.4%65%54.4% fair64¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, just now70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)ARIRANG54.4%Kalshi 65%(54.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
ARIRANG
54.4%
65%
54.4% fair
64¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, just now
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
ARIRANG
54.4%
Kalshi 65%(54.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ARIRANG
- Last price
- 65%
- Fair, margin removed
- 54.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $2K
Dandelion6.7%8%6.7% fair3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just now10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Dandelion6.7%Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Dandelion
6.7%
8%
6.7% fair
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Dandelion
6.7%
Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dandelion
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $548
The Art of Loving5.9%7%5.9% fair3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)The Art of Loving5.9%Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
The Art of Loving
5.9%
7%
5.9% fair
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
The Art of Loving
5.9%
Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Art of Loving
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $5
The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs5.9%7%5.9% fair4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs5.9%Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs
5.9%
7%
5.9% fair
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs
5.9%
Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $305
Iceman3.4%4%3.3% fair1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Iceman3.4%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Iceman
3.4%
4%
3.3% fair
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Iceman
3.4%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iceman
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $170
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love2.9%3.5%2.9% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love2.9%Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
2.9%
3.5%
2.9% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
DeBi TiRAR MÁs FOToS2.5%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)DeBi TiRAR MÁs FOToS2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
DeBi TiRAR MÁs FOToS
2.5%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
DeBi TiRAR MÁs FOToS
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- DeBi TiRAR MÁs FOToS
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
I’m The Problem2.5%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)I’m The Problem2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
I’m The Problem
2.5%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
I’m The Problem
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I’m The Problem
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $354
petal2.5%3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)petal2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
petal
2.5%
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
petal
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- petal
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Short n’ Sweet2.5%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Short n’ Sweet2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Short n’ Sweet
2.5%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Short n’ Sweet
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Short n’ Sweet
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $248
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
You’ll Be Alright, Kid2.5%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)You’ll Be Alright, Kid2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
You’ll Be Alright, Kid
2.5%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
You’ll Be Alright, Kid
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- You’ll Be Alright, Kid
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $101
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT1.7%2%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)HIT ME HARD AND SOFT1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
1.7%
2%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $326
The Great Divide1.7%2%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)The Great Divide1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
The Great Divide
1.7%
2%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
The Great Divide
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Great Divide
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
DINASTÍA0.9%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)DINASTÍA0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
DINASTÍA
0.9%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
DINASTÍA
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- DINASTÍA
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $82
GNX0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)GNX0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
GNX
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
GNX
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- GNX
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $101
KPop Demon Hunters0.8%1%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)KPop Demon Hunters0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
KPop Demon Hunters
0.8%
1%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
KPop Demon Hunters
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $6K
MAYHEM0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)MAYHEM0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
MAYHEM
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
MAYHEM
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- MAYHEM
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $178
SOS Deluxe: LANA0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)SOS Deluxe: LANA0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
SOS Deluxe: LANA
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
SOS Deluxe: LANA
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SOS Deluxe: LANA
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $138
Un Verano Sin Ti0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Un Verano Sin Ti0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Un Verano Sin Ti
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Un Verano Sin Ti
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Un Verano Sin Ti
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $104
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- ARIRANG
- Dandelion
- The Art of Loving
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "#2 Album on Spotify in 2026?". ARIRANG leads at 54.4%. Next is Dandelion at 6.7%. $15K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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