The Prediction Markets

#2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 17, 2026?

Closed
Oct 12, 2026
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
71%
Kalshi 98%(71% fair)polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas
Last price
98%
Fair, margin removed
71%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Solar Eclipse
8.7%
Kalshi 12%(8.7% fair)polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Solar Eclipse
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Boston
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Patient Zero
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patient Zero
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.4%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$489
Trade this on Kalshi
Babydoll
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babydoll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
BbY WOW
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BbY WOW
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
BE HER
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BE HER
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Been By Now
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Been By Now
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Classic
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Classic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Cold Shoulder
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cold Shoulder
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Draw You Out
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw You Out
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Earrings
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Earrings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
hate that i made you love me
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
hate that i made you love me
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Just Might
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
I Knew It, I Knew You
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Knew It, I Knew You
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Janice STFU
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Janice STFU
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
LAST THING YOU NEED
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
LAST THING YOU NEED
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Man I Need
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Man I Need
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Midnight Sun
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midnight Sun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicole Kidman
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Kidman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Pink Clouding
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pink Clouding
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Quebec
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quebec
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Risk It All
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk It All
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
stupid song
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
stupid song
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
the cure
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 367 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
the cure
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas
  • Solar Eclipse
  • Boston

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "#2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 17, 2026?". Choosin' Texas last traded at 71%. Next is Solar Eclipse at 8.7%. $12K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 12, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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