Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Animals 43%
Next is Gladiator II at 33.5%. The venues differ most on Ice Age: Collision Course (Polymarket 2.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 1.5-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
AnimalsArb43%14%2¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 53s ago61%61¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 53s ago26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)AnimalsArb43%Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 69%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 14%polled, 53s agoKalshi 61%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
AnimalsArb
43%
14%
2¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
61%
61¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
AnimalsArb
43%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 69%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 14%polled, 53s agoKalshi 61%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Animals
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $438
Polymarket
- Contract
- Animals
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $398
Polymarket
- Contract
- Animals
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $34
Kalshi
- Contract
- Animals
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $350
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 26¢ and selling on Kalshi at 61¢ nets 3500 bps before fees.
Gladiator II33.5%8.5%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Gladiator II33.5%Polymarket 64.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Gladiator II
33.5%
8.5%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Gladiator II
33.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gladiator II
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $130
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gladiator II
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $192
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gladiator II
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $17
Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex23.5%Not listed23.5%7¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 53s ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex23.5%Kalshi 23.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex
23.5%
Not listed
23.5%
7¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
Sacrifice4.2%8.5%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 53s ago1%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 53s ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Sacrifice4.2%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Sacrifice
4.2%
8.5%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Sacrifice
4.2%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sacrifice
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $40
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sacrifice
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $54
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sacrifice
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sacrifice
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $458
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.
Primate3.5%8.5%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Primate3.5%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Primate
3.5%
8.5%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Primate
3.5%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Primate
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $261
Polymarket
- Contract
- Primate
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $261
Polymarket
- Contract
- Primate
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $40
Doing LifeArb3%8.5%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 53s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Doing LifeArb3%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Doing LifeArb
3%
8.5%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Doing LifeArb
3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Doing Life
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $7
Polymarket
- Contract
- Doing Life
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $135
Polymarket
- Contract
- Doing Life
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Doing Life
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $478
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.
Evil Dead Burn2.9%8.5%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Evil Dead Burn2.9%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Evil Dead Burn
2.9%
8.5%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Evil Dead Burn
2.9%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evil Dead Burn
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $397
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evil Dead Burn
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $261
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evil Dead Burn
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $40
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs2.5%2.5%0.2¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs2.5%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
2.5%
2.5%
0.2¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $242
Ice Age: Collision Course2.1%2.5%0.2¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 53s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ice Age: Collision Course2.1%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ice Age: Collision Course
2.1%
2.5%
0.2¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ice Age: Collision Course
2.1%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ice Age: Collision Course
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $243
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ice Age: Collision Course
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Ice Age2.1%2.5%0.2¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 53s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ice Age2.1%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ice Age
2.1%
2.5%
0.2¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ice Age
2.1%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ice Age
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $242
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ice Age
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
Twilight2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 53s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Twilight2%Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Twilight
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Twilight
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Twilight
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love1.8%2.6%0.3¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 53s ago1%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love1.8%Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
1.8%
2.6%
0.3¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
1.8%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $117
Polymarket
- Contract
- Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $77
Polymarket
- Contract
- Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $242
Kalshi
- Contract
- Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $164
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.
The Breadwinner1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Breadwinner1%Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Breadwinner
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Breadwinner
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Breadwinner
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part1%Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
UNABOMBER1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 53s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)UNABOMBER1%Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
UNABOMBER
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
UNABOMBER
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- UNABOMBER
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Animals on Polymarket at 26¢, sell on Kalshi at 61¢ (3500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: netflix.com, netflix.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Netflix
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Animals
- Gladiator II
- Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex
Live prices for Animals
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "#2 US Netflix Movie this week?". Animals leads at 43%. Next is Gladiator II at 33.5%. $7K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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