The Prediction Markets

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3.0M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democrats, 8 to 10% 25.3%

Next is Democrats, 10 to 12% at 22.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Democrats, 8 to 10% 25.3%Democrats, 10 to 12% 22.2%Democrats, 6 to 8% 16.2%Democrats, 12 to 14% 11.1%Democrats, 4 to 6% 7.8%5 others 17.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Democrats, 8 to 10%
25.3%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 8 to 10%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$187K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 10 to 12%
22.2%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 10 to 12%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$204K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 6 to 8%
16.2%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 6 to 8%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$191K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 12 to 14%
11.1%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 12 to 14%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$208K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 4 to 6%
7.8%
Kalshi 7.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 4 to 6%
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$185K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans win
5.3%
Kalshi 5.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans win
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$990K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 14 to 16%
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 14 to 16%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$207K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 16% and above
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 16% and above
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$208K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 2 to 4%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 2 to 4%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$277K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 0 to 2%
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$340K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Clerk of the House

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrats, 8 to 10%
  • Democrats, 10 to 12%
  • Democrats, 6 to 8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)". Democrats, 8 to 10% leads at 25.3%. Next is Democrats, 10 to 12% at 22.2%. $3.0M has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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