The Prediction Markets

2026 Louisville Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Craig Greenberg 93.3%

Next is Shameka Parrish-Wright at 6.7%. The venues differ most on Shameka Parrish-Wright (Polymarket 6%, Kalshi 7%), a 1.0-point gap.

Craig Greenberg 93.3%Shameka Parrish-Wright 6.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Craig Greenberg
93.3%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 93%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Craig Greenberg
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Craig Greenberg
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 94¢.

Shameka Parrish-Wright
6.7%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shameka Parrish-Wright
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shameka Parrish-Wright
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Jefferson County Board of Elections
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Craig Greenberg
  • Shameka Parrish-Wright

Live prices for Craig Greenberg

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Louisville Mayoral Election Winner". Craig Greenberg leads at 93.3%. Next is Shameka Parrish-Wright at 6.7%. $23K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 Louisville mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Louisville, KY. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Louisville as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Kentucky and the Louisville/Jefferson County Metro Government.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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