The Prediction Markets

2026 Madrid Open: Men’s Singles Winner

Closed
May 4, 2026
Traded
$118K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jannik Sinner
74%
Polymarket 72.5%(74% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jannik Sinner
Last price
72.5%
Fair, margin removed
74%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Zverev
12.8%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Zverev
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Fils
9.3%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arthur Fils
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Blockx
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Blockx
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dani Mérida
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dani Mérida
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jannik Sinner
  • Alexander Zverev
  • Arthur Fils

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "2026 Madrid Open: Men’s Singles Winner". Jannik Sinner last traded at 74%. Next is Alexander Zverev at 12.8%. $118K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 4, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Tournament scheduled for April 20 - May 3, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after May 17, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Madrid Open (https://mutuamadridopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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