The Prediction Markets

2026 Men’s BNP Paribas Open Winner

Closed
Mar 16, 2026
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 16, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 223 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jannik Sinner
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5359 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Jannik Sinner
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 223 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniil Medvedev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5359 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 223 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jannik Sinner
  • Daniil Medvedev

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "2026 Men’s BNP Paribas Open Winner". Jannik Sinner last traded at 99.9%. Next is Daniil Medvedev at 0.1%. $44K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament scheduled for March 1 - March 15, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the BNP Paribas Open (https://bnpparibasopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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