The Prediction Markets

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Closes
Feb 3, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$55K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democrats, ≥2% 95%

Next is Democrats, ≥4% at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Democrats, ≥2%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥2%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥4%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥4%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥5%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥5%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥6%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥6%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥7%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥7%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥8%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥8%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥9%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥9%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥10%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥10%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥11%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥11%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥12%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥12%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Democrats, ≥13%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥13%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥14%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥14%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, ≥16%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, ≥16%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrats, ≥2%
  • Democrats, ≥4%
  • Democrats, ≥5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)". Democrats, ≥2% leads at 95%. Next is Democrats, ≥4% at 94%. $55K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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