The Prediction Markets

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

Starts in 36 daysKickoff
Traded
$313K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Kuomintang (KMT) 68.4%

Next is Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 31.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Kuomintang (KMT) 68.4%Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 31.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Kuomintang (KMT)
68.4%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kuomintang (KMT)
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
31.6%
Polymarket 31.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $304 (3.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
Last price
31.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32.9¢
Sell Yes
30.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$304 (3.04x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kuomintang (KMT)
  • Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
  • Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner". Kuomintang (KMT) leads at 68.4%. Next is Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 31.6%. $313K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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