The Prediction Markets

2027 Chicago Mayoral Election

Closes
Apr 6, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$223K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Alexi Giannoulias 59.8%

Next is John Kelly at 11.2%. The venues differ most on Susana Mendoza (Polymarket 4.6%, Kalshi 8.9%), a 4.3-point gap.

Alexi Giannoulias 59.8%John Kelly 11.2%Brandon Johnson 7.2%Susana Mendoza 5.6%George Cardenas 2.5%14 others 13.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Alexi GiannouliasArb
59.8%
Polymarket 78%(64.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 77%(33.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 74%(33.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexi Giannoulias
Last price
78%
Fair, margin removed
64.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexi Giannoulias
Last price
77%
Fair, margin removed
33.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Alexi Giannoulias
Last price
74%
Fair, margin removed
33.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 74¢ and selling on Polymarket at 75¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

John Kelly
11.2%
Polymarket 9.3%(7.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Kelly
Last price
9.3%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Brandon JohnsonArb
7.2%
Polymarket 7%(5.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 9.9%(4.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%(4.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Johnson
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Johnson
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Johnson
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Susana Mendoza
5.6%
Polymarket 4.6%(3.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8.9%(3.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susana Mendoza
Last price
4.6%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Susana Mendoza
Last price
8.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

George Cardenas
2.5%
Polymarket 3.7%(3.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Cardenas
Last price
3.7%
Fair, margin removed
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
George Cardenas
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Paul Vallas
1.9%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Vallas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Vallas
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rahm Emanuel
1.9%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Brewer
1.7%
Polymarket 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Brewer
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Brewer
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Joe HolbergArb
1.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1.3%(0.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(0.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Holberg
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Holberg
Last price
1.3%
Fair, margin removed
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Holberg
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1.3¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Mike QuigleyArb
1.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2.1%(0.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Quigley
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Quigley
Last price
2.1%
Fair, margin removed
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.1¢ nets 160 bps before fees.

Show 9 more outcomes
Willie WilsonArb
1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%(0.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Willie Wilson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Willie Wilson
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Maria Pappas
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maria Pappas
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maria Pappas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Maria Pappas
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Kam BucknerArb
0.8%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kam Buckner
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$426
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kam Buckner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kam Buckner
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 0.2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 0.7¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

John Kitover
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Kitover
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liam Stanton
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liam Stanton
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Madigan
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Madigan
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Kalshi
Toni Brooks
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toni Brooks
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Danielle Carter-Walters
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Carter-Walters
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisa Nee
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Nee
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Brandon Johnson on Polymarket at 9¢, sell on Kalshi at 11¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 6, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 23, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, Board of Election Commissioners for the City of Chicago
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Apr 6, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 23, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alexi Giannoulias
  • John Kelly
  • Brandon Johnson

Live prices for Alexi Giannoulias

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 Chicago Mayoral Election". Alexi Giannoulias leads at 59.8%. Next is John Kelly at 11.2%. $223K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 6, 2027.

The 2027 Chicago mayoral election will be held on February 23, 2027, to elect the mayor of Chicago, Illinois. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on April 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Chicago.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets