The Prediction Markets

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Starts in 182 daysKickoff
Traded
$610K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 93.1%

Next is Marine Le Pen at 92.8%. The venues differ most on Fabien Roussel (Polymarket 86%, Kalshi 79%), a 7.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
93.1%
Polymarket 92.4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 95%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 92.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
92.8¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 92.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 95¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Marine Le Pen
92.8%
Polymarket 92%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 95%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 93¢ and selling on Kalshi at 95¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Nathalie Arthaud
86.4%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathalie Arthaud
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nathalie Arthaud
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 88¢.

Raphaël Glucksmann
85.9%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 82¢ and selling on Polymarket at 86¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Fabien Roussel
84.3%
Polymarket 86%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 81¢ and selling on Polymarket at 85¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

douard Philippe
84%
Polymarket 83%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 84¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

David Lisnard
81%
Polymarket 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
ric Zemmour
78.9%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 76¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Jean Lassalle
76.5%
Kalshi 76.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Lassalle
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 65¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 68¢.

Show 37 more outcomes
Bruno Retailleau
57.7%
Polymarket 58%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Dominique de Villepin
31.8%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

Marine Tondelier
28.5%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.

Gabriel Attal
22.6%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

François Ruffin
21.9%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

François Hollande
21.5%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 21¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Sarah Knafo
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Asselineau
11.8%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Delphine Batho
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delphine Batho
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernard Cazeneuve
6.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 6.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

lisabeth Borne
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Branco
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Branco
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
6.5%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Michel Barnier
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matthieu Pigasse
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthieu Pigasse
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yaël Braun-Pivet
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xavier Bertrand
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean Castex
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivier Faure
5.3%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.7¢.

Gérald Darmanin
5.3%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.2¢.

Michel-Edouard Leclerc
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel-Edouard Leclerc
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Bayrou
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carole Delga
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Lecornu
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Manuel Bompard
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Philippe de Villiers
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philippe de Villiers
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karim Bouamrane
4.4%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karim Bouamrane
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Karim Bouamrane
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Mathilde Panot
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jérôme Guedj
4.1%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jérôme Guedj
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jérôme Guedj
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 4.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Manuel Valls
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Valls
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Teddy Riner
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teddy Riner
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémentine Autain
3.9%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.3¢.

Valérie Pécresse
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bally Bagayoko
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bally Bagayoko
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Laurent Wauquiez
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ségolène Royal
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ségolène Royal
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Raphaël Glucksmann asks 82¢ on Kalshi and bids 86¢ on Polymarket (400 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 17, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 30, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 17, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 30, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Marine Le Pen
  • Nathalie Arthaud

Live prices for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?". Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads at 93.1%. Next is Marine Le Pen at 92.8%. $610K has traded across 47 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 30, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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