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ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
South Africa 42%
Next is Ireland at 12%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
South Africa42%42%30¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 56s ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)South Africa42%Kalshi 42%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
South Africa
42%
42%
30¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
South Africa
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- South Africa
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $830
Ireland12%12%12¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 56s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Ireland12%Kalshi 12%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Ireland
12%
12%
12¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Ireland
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ireland
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $75
Samoa11%11%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 56s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Samoa11%Kalshi 11%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Samoa
11%
11%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Samoa
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samoa
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $522
Tonga11%11%1¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 56s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Tonga11%Kalshi 11%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Tonga
11%
11%
1¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Tonga
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tonga
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $382
Australia8%8%— bid, 16¢ askpolled, 56s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Australia8%Kalshi 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Australia
8%
8%
— bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Australia
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Australia
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
France7%7%7¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 56s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)France7%Kalshi 7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
France
7%
7%
7¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
France
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- France
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $183
Scotland6.5%6.5%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 56s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Scotland6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Scotland
6.5%
6.5%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Scotland
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Scotland
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
England5%5%5¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 56s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)England5%Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
England
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
England
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- England
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $189
Argentina4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Argentina4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Argentina
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Argentina
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Argentina
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Fiji4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Fiji4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Fiji
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Fiji
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fiji
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Chile4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Chile4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Chile
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Chile
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chile
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Georgia4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Georgia4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Georgia
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Georgia
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Georgia
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Hong Kong China4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Hong Kong China4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Hong Kong China
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Hong Kong China
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hong Kong China
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Italy4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Italy4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Italy
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Italy
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Japan4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Japan4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Japan
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Japan
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Japan
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
New Zealand4%4%4¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 56s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)New Zealand4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
New Zealand
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
New Zealand
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Zealand
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $133
Portugal4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Portugal4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Portugal
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Portugal
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Romania4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Romania4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Romania
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Romania
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Romania
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Spain4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Spain4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Spain
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Spain
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spain
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Uruguay4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Uruguay4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Uruguay
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Uruguay
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Uruguay
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
USA4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)USA4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
USA
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
USA
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- USA
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Wales4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Wales4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Wales
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Wales
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wales
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Zimbabwe4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 56s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Zimbabwe4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Zimbabwe
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Zimbabwe
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zimbabwe
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Canada3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 56s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Canada3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Canada
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Canada
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Canada
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Rugby World Cup
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- South Africa
- Ireland
- Samoa
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2027 Men's Rugby World Cup Winner". South Africa leads at 42%. Next is Ireland at 12%. $2K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 13, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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