The Prediction Markets

2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival: Headliners

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$77K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Mumford & Sons 25%

Next is Arctic Monkeys at 22%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Mumford & Sons
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mumford & Sons
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Arctic Monkeys
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arctic Monkeys
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bon Iver
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bon Iver
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack White
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack White
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vampire Weekend
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vampire Weekend
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dave Matthews Band
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dave Matthews Band
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lana Del Rey
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lana Del Rey
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kings of Leon
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kings of Leon
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Foo Fighters
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foo Fighters
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Killers
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Killers
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
My Chemical Romance
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
My Chemical Romance
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Tame Impala
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tame Impala
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
The Smashing Pumpkins
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Smashing Pumpkins
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pearl Jam
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pearl Jam
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Lord Huron
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lord Huron
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Muse
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Muse
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Weezer
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weezer
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Blink-182
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blink-182
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Imagine Dragons
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Imagine Dragons
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Kahan
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Kahan
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Paramore
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paramore
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Cure
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Cure
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Twenty One Pilots
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Twenty One Pilots
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Florence + the Machine
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florence + the Machine
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Cage the Elephant
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cage the Elephant
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official account of, ABC, in hierarchical order

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mumford & Sons
  • Arctic Monkeys
  • Bon Iver

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival: Headliners". Mumford & Sons leads at 25%. Next is Arctic Monkeys at 22%. $77K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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