The Prediction Markets

2027 Toyota Sienna starting MSRP

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $41,000 80%

Next is Above $41,500 at 68%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $41,000
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $41,000
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $41,500
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $41,500
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $42,000
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $42,000
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $42,500
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $42,500
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $43,000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $43,000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $43,500
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $43,500
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $44,000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $44,000
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $44,500
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $44,500
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $45,000
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $45,000
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Toyota

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $41,000
  • Above $41,500
  • Above $42,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 Toyota Sienna starting MSRP". Above $41,000 leads at 80%. Next is Above $41,500 at 68%. $22K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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