The Prediction Markets

2027 US Open Men's Singles Winner

Closes
Oct 5, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Carlos Alcaraz 33%

Next is Jannik Sinner at 32%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Carlos Alcaraz
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Jannik Sinner
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jannik Sinner
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Casper Ruud
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casper Ruud
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Felix Auger-Aliassime
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Jakub Mensik
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jakub Mensik
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael Jodar
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Jodar
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander Zverev
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Zverev
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex de Minaur
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex de Minaur
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrey Rublev
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Rublev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Arthur Fils
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arthur Fils
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Ben Shelton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shelton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniil Medvedev
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Jiri Lehecka
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jiri Lehecka
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Novak Djokovic
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Novak Djokovic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Fritz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Tommy Paul
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Valentin Vacherot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Valentin Vacherot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander Bublik
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Bublik
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Nakashima
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Nakashima
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Flavio Cobolli
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flavio Cobolli
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Frances Tiafoe
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frances Tiafoe
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Francisco Cerundolo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Francisco Cerundolo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Learner Tien
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Learner Tien
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Luciano Darderi
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luciano Darderi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Carlos Alcaraz
  • Jannik Sinner
  • Casper Ruud

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 US Open Men's Singles Winner". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 33%. Next is Jannik Sinner at 32%. $1K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 5, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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