The Prediction Markets

2028 Democratic Presidential ticket

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 25 months
Traded
$61K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.9%

Next is Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear
2.8%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Elissa Slotkin
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Elissa Slotkin
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ruben Gallego
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ruben Gallego
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Wes Moore
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Wes Moore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and James Talarico
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and James Talarico
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff and Gretchen Whitmer
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff and Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom and Ruben Gallego
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom and Ruben Gallego
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Democratic Party

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Democratic Presidential ticket". Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 8.9%. Next is Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6%. $61K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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