The Prediction Markets

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Closes
May 6, 2029, in 31 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Democratic by 91 to 130 14%

Next is Republican by 61 to 90 at 11.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Democratic by 91 to 130 14%Republican by 61 to 90 11.8%Democratic by 31 to 60 9.7%Democratic by 91 to 130 8.6%Republican by 61 to 90 8.6%9 others 47.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Democratic by 91 to 130
14%
Kalshi 13%(14% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 91 to 130
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican by 61 to 90
11.8%
Kalshi 11%(11.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 61 to 90
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 31 to 60
9.7%
Kalshi 9%(9.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 31 to 60
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 91 to 130
8.6%
Kalshi 8%(8.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 91 to 130
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican by 61 to 90
8.6%
Kalshi 8%(8.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 61 to 90
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 131 to 210
7.5%
Kalshi 7%(7.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 131 to 210
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 11 to 30
6.5%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 11 to 30
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 31 to 60
6.4%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 31 to 60
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 11 to 30
5.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 11 to 30
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 211 or more
5.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 211 or more
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Republican by 1 to 10
5.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic by 1 to 10
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 211 or more
4.3%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 211 or more
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic by 131 to 210
3.2%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 131 to 210
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican by 1 to 10
3.2%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican by 1 to 10
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democratic by 91 to 130
  • Republican by 61 to 90
  • Democratic by 31 to 60

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Electoral College margin of victory?". Democratic by 91 to 130 leads at 14%. Next is Republican by 61 to 90 at 11.8%. $25K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 6, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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