Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Democratic 63.9%
Next is Republican at 36.1%. The venues differ most on Democratic (Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 59%), a 6.0-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
2 of 4 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
DemocraticArbKalshi: “Democratic party”63.9%65%64¢ bid, 66¢ asklive, just now59%59.6% fair58¢ bid, 59¢ asklive, just now59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)DemocraticArb63.9%Polymarket 65%live, just nowKalshi 59%(59.6% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
DemocraticArb
Kalshi: “Democratic party”
63.9%
65%
64¢ bid, 66¢ ask
live, just now
59%
59.6% fair
58¢ bid, 59¢ ask
live, just now
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
DemocraticArb
63.9%
Polymarket 65%live, just nowKalshi 59%(59.6% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democratic
- Price
- 65%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $1.3M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Democratic party
- Price
- 59%
- Fair, margin removed
- 59.6%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $273K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Buying on Kalshi at 59¢ and selling on Polymarket at 64¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
RepublicanKalshi: “Republican party”36.1%34.5%34¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 2 min ago40%40¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 8 min ago35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Republican36.1%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Republican
Kalshi: “Republican party”
36.1%
34.5%
34¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
40%
40¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Republican
36.1%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $1.2M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Republican party
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $331K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 35¢ and selling on Kalshi at 40¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Democratic on Kalshi at 59¢, sell on Polymarket at 64¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: two differences
Where they differ
- Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
- Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Presidency
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
- Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Democratic
- Republican
Live prices for Democratic
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—
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Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)". Democratic leads at 63.9%. Next is Republican at 36.1%. $3.1M has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2029.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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