The Prediction Markets

2028 Presidential matchup

Ends in about 747 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$322K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance 21.3%

Next is Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance at 18.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance 21.3%Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance 18.4%AOC v. JD Vance 15.6%Kamala Harris v. JD Vance 10.6%AOC v. JD Vance 9.2%11 others 24.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
21.3%
Kalshi 15%(21.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
21.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
18.4%
Kalshi 13%(18.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
18.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
AOC v. JD Vance
15.6%
Kalshi 11%(15.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
AOC v. JD Vance
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris v. JD Vance
10.6%
Kalshi 7.5%(10.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris v. JD Vance
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
AOC v. JD Vance
9.2%
Kalshi 6.5%(9.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
AOC v. Marco Rubio
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio
4.8%
Kalshi 3.4%(4.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear v. JD Vance
4.1%
Kalshi 2.9%(4.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear v. JD Vance
Last price
2.9%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico v. Marco Rubio
3.7%
Kalshi 2.6%(3.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico v. Marco Rubio
Last price
2.6%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico v. JD Vance
2.7%
Kalshi 1.9%(2.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico v. JD Vance
Last price
1.9%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio
2%
Kalshi 1.4%(2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio
Last price
1.4%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance
1.9%
Kalshi 1.3%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance
Last price
1.3%
Fair, margin removed
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
1.7%
Kalshi 1.2%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
Last price
1.2%
Fair, margin removed
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance
1.4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio
1.3%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio
1.1%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio
0.2%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party, Democratic Party

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
  • Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
  • AOC v. JD Vance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Presidential matchup". Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance leads at 21.3%. Next is Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance at 18.4%. $322K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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