The Prediction Markets

2028 Republican nominee for President?

Starts in 747 daysKickoff
Traded
$785.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

J.D. Vance 46.4%

Next is Marco Rubio at 16.6%. The venues differ most on Marco Rubio (Polymarket 14.7%, Kalshi 18%), a 3.4-point gap.

J.D. Vance 46.4%Marco Rubio 16.6%Ron DeSantis 3.4%Tucker Carlson 3.1%Donald Trump Jr. 2.7%47 others 27.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

10 of 88 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
J.D. Vance
46.4%
Polymarket 43.8%(47.8% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 42%(41% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
43.8%
Fair, margin removed
47.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
43.8¢
Sell Yes
43.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$228 (2.28x)
Volume
$16.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
41%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$4.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Marco Rubio
16.6%
Polymarket 14.7%(16% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 18%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
14.7%
Fair, margin removed
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
14.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$10.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Price
18%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ron DeSantis
3.4%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$15.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tucker Carlson
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.4%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$13.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Price
2.4%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$4.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Donald Trump Jr.
2.7%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Ted Cruz
2.6%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$19.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Donald Trump
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump
2.1%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
1.8%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$9.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
1.4%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1.2%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$8.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Price
1.2%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 44 more outcomes
Chris Christie
1%
Kalshi 1%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Christie
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Sununu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Sununu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$678
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeff Bezos
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Kent
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Kennedy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lara Trump
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spencer Pratt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$332K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley Hunt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley Hunt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Massie
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$6.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Brian Kemp
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$18.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Glenn Youngkin
0.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1.3%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$8.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Price
1.3%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Josh Hawley
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$20.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tulsi Gabbard
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$14.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ben Shapiro
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shapiro
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Candace Owens
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$933K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Doug Burgum
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Marjorie Taylor Greene
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.4%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Price
0.4%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Pete Hegseth
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$9.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Rand Paul
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$19.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tom Cotton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.3%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cotton
Price
0.3%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$732K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Katie Britt
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$29.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tim Scott
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Byron Donalds
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$44.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elon Musk
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$31.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Eric Trump
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Greg Abbott
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$21.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mike Pence
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$43.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Nikki Haley
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.4%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Price
0.4%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.6%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$36.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Price
0.6%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Steve Bannon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$23.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$902K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Vivek Ramaswamy
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$16.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Price
0.2%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Joe Kent
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Kent
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Kent
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John N. Kennedy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$997K
Trade this on Polymarket
John McEntee
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John McEntee
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$414K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elise Stefanik
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$28.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$714K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Erika Kirk
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

John Thune
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Thune
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Thune
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$460K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Kristi Noem
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$37.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$635K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Matt Gaetz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$20.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kim Kardashian
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$28.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Johnson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Johnson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$882K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicki Minaj
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Rick Scott
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$816K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Brady
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Brady
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$33.0M
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • J.D. Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ron DeSantis

Live prices for J.D. Vance

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Republican nominee for President?". J.D. Vance leads at 46.4%. Next is Marco Rubio at 16.6%. $785.3M has traded across 54 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets