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What the markets expect
JD Vance and Marco Rubio 32.2%
Next is Marco Rubio and JD Vance at 13.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
JD Vance and Marco Rubio32.2%26%32.2% fair25¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 27s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)JD Vance and Marco Rubio32.2%Kalshi 26%(32.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
JD Vance and Marco Rubio
32.2%
26%
32.2% fair
25¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
JD Vance and Marco Rubio
32.2%
Kalshi 26%(32.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 26%
- Fair, margin removed
- 32.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $22K
Marco Rubio and JD Vance13.6%11%13.6% fair7.1¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 27s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Marco Rubio and JD Vance13.6%Kalshi 11%(13.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Marco Rubio and JD Vance
13.6%
11%
13.6% fair
7.1¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Marco Rubio and JD Vance
13.6%
Kalshi 11%(13.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and JD Vance
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $11K
JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.5.2%4.2%5.2% fair2.4¢ bid, 4.2¢ askpolled, 27s ago4.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.5.2%Kalshi 4.2%(5.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.
5.2%
4.2%
5.2% fair
2.4¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
4.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.
5.2%
Kalshi 4.2%(5.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.
- Last price
- 4.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $4K
Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio5.1%4.1%5.1% fair0.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ askpolled, 27s ago4.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio5.1%Kalshi 4.1%(5.1% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio
5.1%
4.1%
5.1% fair
0.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
4.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio
5.1%
Kalshi 4.1%(5.1% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 4.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
JD Vance and Erika Kirk4.6%3.7%4.6% fair2.7¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 27s ago3.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)JD Vance and Erika Kirk4.6%Kalshi 3.7%(4.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
JD Vance and Erika Kirk
4.6%
3.7%
4.6% fair
2.7¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
3.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
JD Vance and Erika Kirk
4.6%
Kalshi 3.7%(4.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Erika Kirk
- Last price
- 3.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $22K
Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio3.6%2.9%3.6% fair2¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio3.6%Kalshi 2.9%(3.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
3.6%
2.9%
3.6% fair
2¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
3.6%
Kalshi 2.9%(3.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 2.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
JD Vance and Donald Trump3.3%2.7%3.3% fair1.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)JD Vance and Donald Trump3.3%Kalshi 2.7%(3.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
JD Vance and Donald Trump
3.3%
2.7%
3.3% fair
1.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
JD Vance and Donald Trump
3.3%
Kalshi 2.7%(3.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Donald Trump
- Last price
- 2.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio3.2%2.6%3.2% fair0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio3.2%Kalshi 2.6%(3.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio
3.2%
2.6%
3.2% fair
0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio
3.2%
Kalshi 2.6%(3.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 2.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin3.1%2.5%3.1% fair1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin3.1%Kalshi 2.5%(3.1% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin
3.1%
2.5%
3.1% fair
1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin
3.1%
Kalshi 2.5%(3.1% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $412
JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders2.9%2.3%2.9% fair2.1¢ bid, 2.3¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders2.9%Kalshi 2.3%(2.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2.9%
2.3%
2.9% fair
2.1¢ bid, 2.3¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2.9%
Kalshi 2.3%(2.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
- Last price
- 2.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,348 (43.5x)
- Volume
- $6K
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio2.5%2%0.1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Donald Trump and Marco Rubio2.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio
2.5%
2%
0.1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio
2.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donald Trump and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $568
JD Vance and Byron Donalds2.5%2%0.2¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)JD Vance and Byron Donalds2.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
JD Vance and Byron Donalds
2.5%
2%
0.2¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
JD Vance and Byron Donalds
2.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Byron Donalds
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $882
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.2.5%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.2.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.
2.5%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.
2.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $256
Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk2.5%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk2.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk
2.5%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk
2.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $390
Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders2.5%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders2.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2.5%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $202
Tucker Carlson and JD Vance2.5%2%0.2¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tucker Carlson and JD Vance2.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tucker Carlson and JD Vance
2.5%
2%
0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tucker Carlson and JD Vance
2.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tucker Carlson and JD Vance
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
JD Vance and Elise Stefanik1.9%1.5%1.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)JD Vance and Elise Stefanik1.9%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
JD Vance and Elise Stefanik
1.9%
1.5%
1.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
JD Vance and Elise Stefanik
1.9%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Elise Stefanik
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $11K
JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin1.7%1.4%0.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin1.7%Kalshi 1.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin
1.7%
1.4%
0.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin
1.7%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $6K
Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio1.5%1.2%0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 27s ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio1.5%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio
1.5%
1.2%
0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio
1.5%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio1.2%1%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 27s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio
1.2%
1%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $100
Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds1.2%1%1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds
1.2%
1%
1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk0.4%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 27s ago0.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk0.4%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk
0.4%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
0.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk
0.4%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $332
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump0.1%0.1%0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 27s ago2.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)Marco Rubio and Donald Trump0.1%Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump
0.1%
0.1%
0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Donald Trump
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik0.1%0.1%0.1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik0.1%Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik
0.1%
0.1%
0.1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $865
Ron DeSantis and JD Vance0.1%0.1%0.1¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 27s ago1.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Ron DeSantis and JD Vance0.1%Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Ron DeSantis and JD Vance
0.1%
0.1%
0.1¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
1.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Ron DeSantis and JD Vance
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ron DeSantis and JD Vance
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $826
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- JD Vance and Marco Rubio
- Marco Rubio and JD Vance
- JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2028 Republican Presidential ticket". JD Vance and Marco Rubio leads at 32.2%. Next is Marco Rubio and JD Vance at 13.6%. $110K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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