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What the markets expect
Spain 20.2%
Next is France at 14.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Spain20.2%24%20.2% fair21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 18s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Spain20.2%Kalshi 24%(20.2% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Spain
20.2%
24%
20.2% fair
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Spain
20.2%
Kalshi 24%(20.2% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spain
- Last price
- 24%
- Fair, margin removed
- 20.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $5K
France14.3%17%14.3% fair17¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 18s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)France14.3%Kalshi 17%(14.3% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
France
14.3%
17%
14.3% fair
17¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
France
14.3%
Kalshi 17%(14.3% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- France
- Last price
- 17%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $5K
England10.9%13%10.9% fair13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 18s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)England10.9%Kalshi 13%(10.9% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
England
10.9%
13%
10.9% fair
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
England
10.9%
Kalshi 13%(10.9% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- England
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $3K
Germany7.6%9%7.6% fair9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 18s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Germany7.6%Kalshi 9%(7.6% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Germany
7.6%
9%
7.6% fair
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Germany
7.6%
Kalshi 9%(7.6% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $2K
Netherlands6.7%8%6.7% fair4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 18s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Netherlands6.7%Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Netherlands
6.7%
8%
6.7% fair
4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Netherlands
6.7%
Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Netherlands
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Portugal6.7%8%6.7% fair8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 18s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Portugal6.7%Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Portugal
6.7%
8%
6.7% fair
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Portugal
6.7%
Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Italy5.9%7%5.9% fair5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 18s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Italy5.9%Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Italy
5.9%
7%
5.9% fair
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Italy
5.9%
Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $3K
Sweden4.2%5%4.2% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Sweden4.2%Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Sweden
4.2%
5%
4.2% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Sweden
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sweden
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $927
Norway2.5%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 18s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Norway2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Norway
2.5%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Norway
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Norway
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Turkiye2.5%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 18s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Turkiye2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Turkiye
2.5%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Turkiye
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Turkiye
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
Belgium1.7%2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 18s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Belgium1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Belgium
1.7%
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Belgium
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Belgium
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Croatia1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 18s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Croatia1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Croatia
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Croatia
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Croatia
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Albania0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Albania0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Albania
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Albania
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Albania
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Austria0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Austria0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austria
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austria
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austria
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bosnia and Herzegovina0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Czechia0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Czechia0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Czechia
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Czechia
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Czechia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Denmark0.9%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 18s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Denmark0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Denmark
0.9%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Denmark
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denmark
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Georgia0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Georgia0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Georgia
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Georgia
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Georgia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hungary0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Hungary0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hungary
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hungary
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hungary
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ireland0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ireland0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ireland
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ireland
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ireland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Northern Ireland0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Northern Ireland0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Northern Ireland
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Northern Ireland
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Northern Ireland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Poland0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Poland0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Poland
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Poland
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Poland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Romania0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Romania0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Romania
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Romania
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Romania
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Scotland0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Scotland0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Scotland
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Scotland
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Scotland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Serbia0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Serbia0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Serbia
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Serbia
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Serbia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $311
Slovakia0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Slovakia0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Slovakia
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Slovakia
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Slovakia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $66
Slovenia0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Slovenia0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Slovenia
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Slovenia
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Slovenia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Switzerland0.8%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 18s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Switzerland0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Switzerland
0.8%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Switzerland
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Switzerland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ukraine0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ukraine0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ukraine
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ukraine
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ukraine
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Wales0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Wales0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Wales
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Wales
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wales
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Spain
- France
- England
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2028 UEFA Euros Champion". Spain leads at 20.2%. Next is France at 14.3%. $48K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 15, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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