The Prediction Markets

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Starts in 747 daysKickoff
Traded
$794.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
46 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

JD Vance 20.3%

Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%. The venues differ most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Polymarket 12.8%, Kalshi 9.3%), a 3.5-point gap.

JD Vance 20.3%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12%Gavin Newsom 9.9%Jon Ossoff 9.5%Marco Rubio 9%39 others 39.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

34 of 86 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 46 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
JD Vance
20.3%
Polymarket 20.1%(20.7% fair)live, 46 min agoKalshi 21%(20.1% fair)live, 46 min agoBest Yes 20.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $498 (4.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD Vance
Price
20.1%
Fair, margin removed
20.7%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
20.1¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$498 (4.98x)
Volume
$17.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Price
21%
Fair, margin removed
20.1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20.1¢.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12%
Polymarket 12.8%live, 46 min agoKalshi 9.3%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Price
12.8%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$14.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Price
9.3%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$4.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 9.4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12.7¢ nets 330 bps before fees.

Gavin Newsom
9.9%
Polymarket 9.5%live, 46 min agoKalshi 11%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Price
9.5%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$18.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Price
11%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 9.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 140 bps before fees.

Jon Ossoff
9.5%
Polymarket 9.8%live, 46 min agoKalshi 9.3%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Price
9.8%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$6.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Price
9.3%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 9.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9.7¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Marco Rubio
9%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 10%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$13.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Price
10%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 8.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9.9¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

Kamala Harris
4.2%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 4.1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$9.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Price
4.1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 4.1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4.2¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Josh Shapiro
2.9%
Polymarket 3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2.7%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Price
2.7%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 2.7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.9¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Pete Buttigieg
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%live, 46 min agoKalshi 2.8%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Price
2.8%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$8.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Price
2.8%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.8¢.

Donald Trump
2.5%
Kalshi 2.6%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump
Price
2.6%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$4.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear
2.3%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2.5%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$19.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Price
2.5%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 2.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.5¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Show 48 more outcomes
Ron DeSantis
2.3%
Polymarket 2.2%live, 46 min agoKalshi 2.6%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Price
2.2%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$12.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Price
2.6%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 2.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.4¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Mark Kelly
2.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2.6%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$796K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Price
2.6%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.4¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

James Talarico
1.8%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$8.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Rahm Emanuel
1.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$346K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$8.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Price
1.5%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$10.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.9%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$14.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Price
0.9%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 0.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.4¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Raphael Warnock
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
1%
Polymarket 1.1%live, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Price
1.1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$8.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Wes Moore
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$12.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.1¢.

Ro Khanna
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$11.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ro Khanna
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$577K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Donald Trump Jr.
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Price
0.9%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Hunter Biden
0.9%
Kalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$861K
Trade this on Kalshi
JB Pritzker
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.9%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
JB Pritzker
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$13.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Price
0.9%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.8¢.

Ted Cruz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$695K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Donald Trump Jr.
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$14.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$8.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Jamie Dimon
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$11.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.6¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Stephen Smith
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Price
0.5%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Gretchen Whitmer
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$15.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.6¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Doug Burgum
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$414K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Glenn Youngkin
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$28.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.5¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Tulsi Gabbard
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$35.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.6¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Greg Abbott
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$35.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Nikki Haley
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.5%live, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$30.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Price
0.5%
As of
Live feed, 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$941K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.4¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Elon Musk
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$27.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Obama
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$19.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Walz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$44.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$632K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Vivek Ramaswamy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Abigail Spanberger
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abigail Spanberger
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$923K
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Schiff
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Schiff
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$945K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Padilla
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Padilla
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$851K
Trade this on Polymarket
Candace Owens
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$535K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elissa Slotkin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$730K
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Trump
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Hakeem Jeffries
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$279K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jalen Brunson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
John N. Kennedy
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John N. Kennedy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$395K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Stein
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Stein
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kardashian
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$40.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
LeBron James
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$54.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Johnson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Johnson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$391K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Scott
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$512K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Smith
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Smith
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$33.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Scott
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$393K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cotton
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$22.4M
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 46 min old: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asks 9.4¢ on Kalshi and bids 12.7¢ on Polymarket (330 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi: the next person inaugurated for the 2029 term. Polymarket: the election winner. They differ if the winner is not inaugurated.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Presidency
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi: the next person inaugurated for the 2029 term. Polymarket: the election winner. They differ if the winner is not inaugurated.
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • JD Vance
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Gavin Newsom

Live prices for JD Vance

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?". JD Vance leads at 20.3%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%. $794.1M has traded across 58 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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